Situation Report: China’s posture in taiwan

Introduction

In late February 2026 an operation led by the United States and Israel against the regime escalated into a major regional conflict. During the first weeks of Operation Epic Fury the United States and its partners launched thousands of missiles and interceptors to suppress Iran’s air‑ and naval‑defence network and to protect Gulf allies from Iranian drone and missile attacks. The pace of firing far exceeded the peacetime production rate of precision‑guided munitions and exposed weaknesses in U.S. stockpiles. At the same time, China (PRC) and Taiwan watched the conflict closely, assessing how U.S. resource consumption and battlefield lessons might affect deterrence across the Taiwan Strait. This report examines information from Chinese, Taiwanese, Korean and Japanese sources, as well as assessments such as those of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), to provide an objective situational overview.

U.S. missile and interceptor stockpiles

Depletion of key U.S. weapons

Several reports reveal that the Iran conflict rapidly consumed U.S. precision munitions and interceptors:

Precision‑strike missiles and cruise missiles – Cronkite News reported that in the first 16 days of Operation Epic Fury the U.S. military fired more than 6,000 munitions, including roughly 46 % of its inventory of ATACMS and Precision‑Strike Missiles and nearly 40 % of THAAD interceptors. Analysts warned that inventories were already small and that replenishment will take years; the risk is not immediate exhaustion but inadequate stock to confront a near‑peer like China.

Patriot and THAAD interceptors – The same report noted that, as of mid‑March, U.S. and Gulf forces had fired more than 1,100 Patriot interceptors and used significant numbers of THAAD missiles to defend Israel and regional bases. Production of Patriot missiles is capped at about 500 interceptors per year.

Redeployment from East Asia – Taiwan News wrote that the U.S. had transferred Patriot and THAAD interceptors from East Asia to the Middle East to replace the depleted inventory, including moving a THAAD battery from South Korea. Chosun Ilbo and Reuters reported that this diversion raised concerns in South Korea and Japan, though officials insisted regional deterrence remained adequate.

U.S. statements on arms shipments to Taiwan

U.S. officials attempted to reassure Taiwan that its arms deliveries would continue despite the Iran conflict. In testimony to Congress, Stanley Brown (head of the Pentagon’s Missile Defense Agency) and Assistant Secretary of Defense Michael Miller stated that there had been no delays in arms shipments to Taiwan and that Taiwan remained a top priority for weapons such as Harpoon anti‑ship missiles. Nevertheless, they acknowledged a multi‑billion‑dollar backlog and supply‑chain constraints, and some shipments of interceptors were redirected from other regions.

Taiwanese assessments

Taiwanese media and officials closely followed the consumption of U.S. munitions. Their commentary highlighted both concern and efforts to build indigenous capability.

The Financial Times (cited by Taiwan’s Central News Agency – CNA) reported that U.S. forces had fired hundreds of JASSM air‑launched cruise missiles and Tomahawk sea‑launched cruise missiles during the first weeks of the war. These long‑range missiles allow U.S. aircraft or ships to strike targets from beyond enemy air defences. Taiwanese defence officials told the Financial Times they feared that excessive U.S. use of these stockpiles could weaken deterrence against a PLA invasion of Taiwan.

The same CNA report quoted an unnamed Taiwanese national security official who worried that if the United States “spends too much time and resources on other battlefields, it will eventually create an imbalance”.

Taiwan’s supplemental defence budgets became contentious amid concerns about U.S. supply. ISW’s March 13 China–Taiwan update noted that three versions of the special defence budget were under review; opposition versions funded specific U.S. procurement projects such as HIMARS rocket systems but provided limited resources for domestic T‑Dome missile defence and drone production. Minister of National Defence Wellington Koo warned that the budget’s inflexibility could delay Taiwan’s combat readiness.

Taiwanese media emphasised lessons from the Iran war. Taiwan News wrote that the conflict showcased how quickly precision‑guided munitions are consumed and urged Taiwan to accelerate its T‑Dome air‑defence network and drone industry. Another article said the U.S. had moved missiles from East Asia to the Middle East, and Taiwan planned to integrate 102 PAC‑3 MSE missiles with indigenous systems to form a dense defence network.

Chinese perspectives

Several Chinese commentators and platforms commented on the Iran war’s impact on U.S. deterrence and on China’s posture:

BackChina, a Chinese diaspora website, summarised an article by Taiwan’s TVBS and the Financial Times arguing that the Iran war is rapidly consuming U.S. long‑range cruise‑missile stockpiles (JASSM and Tomahawk). These weapons are considered critical for defeating a PLA invasion because they can be launched from outside Chinese air‑defence range. The article quoted a Taiwanese defence official warning that U.S. consumption of these munitions weakens deterrence. Another Taiwanese national security official cautioned that over‑committing to other theatres could create an imbalance.

Phoenix (ifeng) commentary – Journalist Hu Xijin argued in a widely read commentary that U.S. elites cannot ignore China while fighting Iran. Citing the Wall Street Journal, Hu noted that U.S. Central Command was drawing on long‑range missiles ordinarily reserved for the Indo‑Pacific Command, raising concerns about how this might undermine deterrence against China. He quoted CSIS analyst Karako warning that although the U.S. has enough missiles to defeat Iran, the key question is how such consumption weakens deterrence toward China. Hu reported that former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defence Rovitz (Horowitz) observed that confronting China would be “an order of magnitude harder” than fighting Iran. Hu concluded that China must continue to strengthen its hard power and nuclear deterrent to “make U.S. hawks tremble,” advocating a long‑term strategy of building comprehensive strength.

Global Times and other PRC outlets (referenced by ISW) highlighted the use of artificial intelligence in U.S. strikes and discussed the downing of U.S. aircraft over Kuwait. ISW assessed that the PRC will likely study the Iran conflict to derive lessons on kinetic operations and emerging technologies such as AI. PRC commentators noted that AI helped track U.S. military build‑ups before the strikes.

PRC official stance and narrative warfare – ISW’s March 20 update observed that the PRC is pushing for reopening the Strait of Hormuz and providing humanitarian aid to project neutrality, but has not provided material military support to Iran. The PRC stockpiled oil before the war and is using global shortages to coerce neighbours economically, offering “stable and reliable energy” to Taiwan if it accepts “peaceful reunification”. ISW noted that Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post reported on Japan’s heavy use of strategic oil reserves, hinting at Tokyo’s vulnerability to PRC coercion.

Military modernisation and lessons from Iran – ISW’s March 27 update reported that Chinese state media showcased Type 055 guided‑missile destroyers conducting live‑fire air‑defence training and emphasised their HHQ‑9 area‑air‑defence missiles. Analysts suggested that the PLA was rehearsing operations in “complex electromagnetic environments” to prepare for U.S. electronic‑warfare capabilities demonstrated in Venezuela and Iran. PRC emphasised these capabilities to signal that it does not share the vulnerabilities of Iran or Venezuela. However, reliance on Type 055 destroyers for air defence could limit PLAN carrier operations beyond the first island chain.

Korean and Japanese viewpoints

South Korean media – Chosun Ilbo noted that the U.S. redeployed part of its THAAD system from South Korea and diverted Patriot interceptors to the Middle East, which consumed $5.6 billion worth of ammunition in the first two days of fighting. CSIS analyst Mark Cancian warned that heavy consumption of THAAD and Patriot missiles in the Middle East increases risk in the Indo‑Pacific and Ukraine. South Korean President Lee Jae‑myung acknowledged the redeployment but said it would not hinder deterrence against North Korea.

Japanese and regional concerns – Reuters reported that South Korea and Japan worried about defence gaps if Patriot and THAAD systems were diverted; Japanese opposition politicians criticized using U.S. bases in Japan to launch strikes into the Middle East. ISW’s March 20 update noted that the PRC is taking advantage of Japan’s reliance on strategic oil reserves and that PRC rhetoric tries to highlight Japan’s vulnerability to economic coercion. The same update emphasised the value of sea‑based ballistic‑missile defence: U.S. Navy Aegis ships successfully intercepted Iranian missiles over Turkey, illustrating the importance of sea‑based interceptors in defending Japan and Taiwan. The report suggested that Japan’s new Aegis System Equipped Vessels (ASEVs) will enhance missile defence and help counter PRC attempts to dominate the Western Pacific.