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# Masoud Zamani

Masoud Zamani

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## Posts

- [Blog](https://masoudzamani.ca/blog/) - Join Us Explore insightful articles and various projects from Masoud Zamani. Go
- [Patterns in the 2026 energy markets](https://masoudzamani.ca/patterns-in-the-2026-energy-markets/) - Published by Nexara Intelligence Group https://nexaraintelligencegroup.com/situationReports/2ea7607b-8de5-4a30-84f8-bfc23e0ebedaThe energy world of 2026 was dominated by geopolitics. On 28 February 2026 a U.S.–Israeli strike on Iran led to a war that effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil and liquefied‑natural‑gas (LNG) shipping channel. Daily transit through the strait nearly stopped, with the disruption affecting crude oil, refined
- [tHE lOGIC OF IRAN'S BRINKSMANSHIP](https://masoudzamani.ca/the-logic-of-irans-brinksmanship/) - Co-authored with Avideh Motmaen-FarPublished by National Post:https://nationalpost.com/opinion/the-logic-of-irans-brinkmanshipIran’s decision to escalate the war last week appears counterintuitive. As Omani mediators sought to preserve a diplomatic opening through a ten-day truce and renewed negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran instead launched a direct ballistic missile attack on the U.S. air bases at Muwaffaq Salti and Al-Azragh
- [Situation Report: Military Developments and Scenarios in the 2026 U.S.–Israel War on the Islamic Regime](https://masoudzamani.ca/elementor-1707/) - The current campaign against the Iranian regime is not simply a war of firepower—it is a contest between competing military logics. The United States and Israel have pursued a precision-strike model designed to decapitate leadership, dismantle missile infrastructure, and impose rapid strategic paralysis. In contrast, the regime has shifted into its long-prepared Mosaic Defence posture, dispersing authority, absorbing shocks, and extending the battlefield across the region through proxies and asymmetric pressure. What emerges is not a conventional war with a clear front, but a layered confrontation: air supremacy versus endurance, precision versus dispersion, speed versus time. The trajectory of the conflict will not be determined solely by battlefield outcomes, but by whether pressure fractures the regime from within—or whether its decentralized structure succeeds in turning this into a prolonged war of attrition.
- [Situation Report: China's posture in taiwan](https://masoudzamani.ca/iran-2026-conflict-and-china/) - What is happening in Iran does not stay in Iran. The scale and tempo of the conflict—particularly the heavy use of missiles and air defense systems—are already forcing a quiet reassessment elsewhere. In East Asia, the question is not framed in dramatic terms. It is more practical: how sustainable is modern warfare when it unfolds at this pace, and across more than one theater? Beijing appears to be treating the conflict as a source of observation rather than intervention. There is little indication of direct involvement, but considerable attention to how operations are conducted—how air defenses hold, how quickly precision munitions are expended, and how the United States manages simultaneous commitments. For Taiwan and regional actors, the implications are similarly measured. The focus is less on immediate shifts in power and more on longer-term preparedness: supply chains, production capacity, and the balance between reliance on partners and domestic capability. What emerges is not a sense of instability, but of adjustment. The conflict is prompting a closer look at assumptions that have long been taken for granted—about readiness, resilience, and the practical limits of deterrence in a world where crises are no longer contained to one region at a time.
- [When Hormuz Closes: Global Shockwaves, Strategic Rivalry, and the Road to Recession](https://masoudzamani.ca/when-hormuz-closes-global-shockwaves-strategic-rivalry-and-the-road-to-recession/) - The sudden closure of the Strait of Hormuz has sent shockwaves through global markets, exposing the fragility of energy supply chains and intensifying U.S.–China rivalry. This report analyzes the unfolding crisis, evaluates its economic and strategic consequences, and outlines the scenarios that could shape the next global downturn.
- [Situation REPORT ON THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ](https://masoudzamani.ca/situation-report-on-the-strait-of-hormuz/) - This report examines the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz and analyzes how disruption—whether partial or total—can reshape global energy markets, financial stability, and geopolitical dynamics. Moving beyond conventional narratives, it highlights systemic risks that extend far beyond the region. This report examines the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz and analyzes how disruption—whether partial or total—can reshape global energy markets, financial stability, and geopolitical dynamics. Moving beyond conventional narratives, it highlights systemic risks that extend far beyond the region.
- [Energy Market Trends for Remainder of 2026 and Cascading Macro/Geopolitical Impacts](https://masoudzamani.ca/energy-market-trends-for-remainder-of-2026-and-cascading-macro-geopolitical-impacts/) - Energy Market Trends for Remainder of 2026 and Cascading Macro/Geopolitical Impacts Energy Market Fundamentals The current oil market is dominated by the largest supply disruption in history: the US-Israel strikes on the Islamic Republic (late Feb 2026) and ensuing near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz (handling ~20 mb/d pre-conflict). Gulf producers (incl. OPEC+ members) have curtailed
- [Prospects for Ground Invasion in the War against Iran's Islamic Regime](https://masoudzamani.ca/prospects-for-ground-invasion-in-the-war-against-irans-islamic-regime/) - Situation Report: Prospects for Ground Operations in the War Against Iran’s Islamic Regime (As of 3 April 2026) The air and naval phase of Operation Epic Fury, initiated on 28 February 2026 by the United States and Israel, has now entered its second month. With the regime’s senior leadership eliminated, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei,
- [Federalism's False Promise](https://masoudzamani.ca/elementor-1673/) - Federalism's False Promise: Why It Would fragment Iran As Iran moves toward a possible regime transition, the question of what kind of state will emerge from it is once again moving to the center of political debate. Iran’s opposition landscape is as polarized as it is diverse—an unsurprising reality given the complexity of the country’s
- [Iran: The Moral Test of Our Time](https://masoudzamani.ca/iran-the-moral-test-of-our-time/) - Iran: The Moral Test of Our Time World history was written by those who said no—to Nazism, fascism, and totalitarianism—and who acted to rid the world of them. Had it not been for the sacrifices of the free world, and the sustained struggle of freedom-loving peoples, history might have been forced to live with Hitler
- [Where is homeland-part ii](https://masoudzamani.ca/where-is-homeland-part-ii/) - wHERE IS HOMELAND - PART II It was May 2022—eight years after my return. Looking back, I could see little but ruins: a country in decline, a people sinking into misery. Iran had once been great, yet it had not been treated well.Something had changed in me, though. Upon my return, I began to notice
- [Where Is HOMELAND - PART III](https://masoudzamani.ca/where-is-homeland-part-iii/) - A reflective travel narrative set in rural Iran—on homeland, geometry, exile, and friendship beneath a cherry tree. We sat on the sand beneath a cherry tree and spoke of squares, trees, and why people leave what they once built.
- [The Gorbachev Illusion](https://masoudzamani.ca/the-gorbachev-illusion/) - The Gorbachev Illusion: The False Promise of Reform in the Islamic Republic The durability of modern authoritarian systems is one of the more unsettling features of contemporary politics. Henry Kissinger once suggested that revolutionary regimes, if they prioritize survival over transcendence, will eventually collapse under the weight of their own inertia. Yet this assumption now For decades, Western observers have anticipated the collapse of the Islamic Republic by reading stagnation as decay and repression as exhaustion. Yet the regime’s endurance tells a different story—one not of ideological renewal, but of strategic adaptation. This essay argues that what has repeatedly been mistaken for reform is in fact a survival technique
- [In Search of a Rubio Doctrine](https://masoudzamani.ca/in-search-of-a-rubio-doctrine/) - An analysis of Marco Rubio’s emerging foreign policy doctrine and his dual role as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, comparing his strategic worldview to Kissinger’s legacy.
- [Where Is HOMELAND?](https://masoudzamani.ca/where-is-homeland/) - Once convinced that belonging was a limitation, I imagined myself a citizen of the world. Yet, at the end of my Ph.D., an unexpected longing took hold—a quiet pull toward home. This is a reflection on return, memory, and the uneasy question of where homeland truly resides.
- [Why Iranians Aren't Rising - Yet](https://masoudzamani.ca/elementor-1563/) - Iran appears ripe for revolt: the economy is broken, society is exhausted, and the regime’s legitimacy is eroding. And yet, the streets remain largely quiet. This article examines the structural, psychological, and political barriers that have so far prevented collapse—and why waiting for spontaneous uprising misunderstands how authoritarian systems actually fall.
- [Missiles and Messages: Characterizing the Use of Force between Iran and Israel](https://masoudzamani.ca/missiles-and-messages-characterizing-the-use-of-force-between-iran-and-israel/) - This piece examines how Iran and Israel use force—military strikes, covert operations, and symbolic actions—to signal intent, calibrate escalation, and redefine deterrence in the region. An analysis of how Iran and Israel use force—overt, covert, and symbolic—to signal intentions, shape deterrence, and redefine escalation dynamics in the Middle East
- [How Meaningful is “Meaningful Human Control” in LAWS Regulation?](https://masoudzamani.ca/how-meaningful-is-meaningful-human-control-in-laws-regulation/) - This essay examines whether “meaningful human control” offers a viable legal and ethical standard for regulating lethal autonomous weapons, or whether it masks deeper structural gaps. An analysis of whether “meaningful human control” provides real ethical, legal, and operational safeguards in regulating lethal autonomous weapon systems.
- [Algorithms, Automation and Accountability: Imagining Responsibility for the Crimes of Machines](https://masoudzamani.ca/algorithms-automation-and-accountability-imagining-responsibility-for-the-crimes-of-machines/) - Algorithms, Automation and Accountability: Imagining Responsibility for the Crimes of Machines Posted on August 6, 2025 by Mark Kersten The following is a guest post by Masoud Zamani is a lecturer in international law and international relations at the University of British Columbia. His research focuses on the intersection of emerging technologies and international legal accountability.In recent years, the growing A sharp analysis of how automation and algorithmic systems reshape accountability, decision-making, and control in modern governance and conflict.
- [The Future of Warfare: National Positions on the Governance of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems](https://masoudzamani.ca/the-future-of-warfare-national-positions-on-the-governance-of-lethal-autonomous-weapons-systems/) - The Future of Warfare: National Positions on the Governance of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems by Benjamin Perrin, Masoud Zamani | Feb 11, 2025 Lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS), such as drones and autonomous missile systems, are no longer a theoretical concern. Indeed, they are finding their way onto the battlefield. Amid growing international concern, States have articulated a range of A deep dive into the future of warfare, focusing on AI-enabled systems, autonomous weapons, and the strategic, legal, and ethical changes in modern conflict
- [The Iran–Israel Conflict Through the Lens of Game Theory](https://masoudzamani.ca/the-iran-israel-conflict-through-the-lens-of-game-theory/) - The Iran–Israel Conflict Through the Lens of Game Theory By Masoud zamani ( Sep 19 , 2025 ) The 12-day war between Israel and Iran may have paused—but the next round of violence is already taking shape. As of writing this piece, the 12-day war has been halted by a fragile ceasefire—one that could collapse at any moment. While
- [A Conflict in Suspense: General Close of Military Operations in the Iran-Israel Conflict](https://masoudzamani.ca/a-conflict-in-suspense-general-close-of-military-operations-in-the-iran-israel-conflict/) - A Conflict in Suspense: General Close of Military Operations in the Iran-Israel Conflict by Masoud Zamani, Amirabbas Kiani | Nov 13, 2024 In April 2024, hostilities between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran intensified significantly, with both sides engaging in direct military operations within each other’s borders. A bombing near the Iranian embassy in Damascus on April 1st triggered this
- [Dilemmas of Defense: The U.S. Role in the Iran-Israel Conflict](https://masoudzamani.ca/dilemmas-of-defense-the-u-s-role-in-the-iran-israel-conflict/) - Dilemmas of Defense: The U.S. Role in the Iran-Israel Conflict by Masoud Zamani, Amirabbas Kiani | Jan 24, 2025 On April 13, 2024, the Islamic Republic of Iran carried out an unprecedented operation, launching hundreds of drones and cruise missiles toward Israel. Reports indicate that Israel intercepted the majority of these drones and missiles with assistance from the United States, Britain, and Jordan.
- [The Ideological Constraints of the Islamic Republic](https://masoudzamani.ca/the-ideological-constraints-of-the-islamic-republic/) - The Ideological Constraints of the Islamic Republic By Masoud zamani ( Dec 6 , 2024 ) As the U.S. prepares for a second Trump administration, the question looms: can Iran’s Islamic Republic ever shift its deeply rooted ideological stance in response to external pressure? While some may hope that renewed ‘maximum pressure’ from Washington could
- [The Suicidal Machine: On AI, Death, and Autonomy](https://masoudzamani.ca/the-suicidal-machine-on-ai-death-and-autonomy/) - The Suicidal Machine: On AI, Death, and Autonomy By Masoud Zamani The Suicidal Machine: On AI, Death, and AutonomyBy Masoud Zamani As the world grows increasingly anxious about the existential risks of artificial intelligence—from the specter of superintelligence to the slow erosion of human autonomy—a more fundamental, and perhaps more disquieting, question remains largely unasked: What
- [Reverse-Engineering Collapse: How the Islamic Republic Brought Itself to theBrink](https://masoudzamani.ca/reverse-engineering-collapse-how-the-islamic-republic-brought-itself-to-thebrink/) - It appears that Israel’s Operation Rising Lion has dealt a significant blow to the militaryand security infrastructure of the Islamic Republic. As of this writing, the prospect ofregime change remains uncertain. Yet what is beyond doubt is that the Islamic Republicis at its weakest point since 1979. The fragility of the current moment makes it
- [Unchanging Waters: Persian Gulf Name Dispute in International Law](https://masoudzamani.ca/unchanging-waters-persian-gulf-name-dispute-in-international-law-copy-2/) - On May 7, the Associated Press published an unconfirmed report indicating that the Trump Administration is considering adopting the term “Arabian Gulf” in place of the historically established name “Persian Gulf.” During a press briefing, President Trump remained deliberately noncommittal, stating, “I don’t want to hurt any feelings,” and added that he would make a final determination during
- [Location, Location, Location: Targeting Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Questions of Extraterritoriality in NIACs](https://masoudzamani.ca/location-location-location-targeting-ismail-haniyeh-in-tehran-and-questions-of-extraterritoriality-in-niacs/) - In the early hours of Wednesday morning on 31 July 2024, it was confirmed that Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, who had traveled to Tehran for the inauguration ceremony of Iran’s new president, was killed in Iran’s capital as a result of a strike in his place of temporary residence. The specifics of this strike are not
- [Can Iran’s Monarchy Be Restored?](https://masoudzamani.ca/can-irans-monarchy-be-restored/) - Reza Pahlavi’s popularity and Iran’s mounting discontent raise the possibility of restoring a constitutional monarchy, a secular, democratic alternative increasingly viewed as a stable path forward after the Islamic Republic. “Now is the time to rise; the time to reclaim Iran. Let us all come forward and bring about the end of this regime.” With these

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- [Home](https://masoudzamani.ca/) - My name is Masoud Zamani. I think about law, power, and the human ambitions that shape political life — especially in the Middle East, and especially in Iran.
- [blogs](https://masoudzamani.ca/blogs/) - ideas in print tHE lOGIC OF IRAN’S BRINKSMANSHIP A woman stands next to… Learn more Why Iranians Aren’t Rising – Yet Iran appears ripe for revolt:… Learn more The Future of Warfare: National Positions on the… The Future of Warfare: National… Learn more Algorithms, Automation and Accountability: Imagining Responsibility for the… Algorithms, Automation and Accountability:
- [My Work](https://masoudzamani.ca/mywork/) - My latest writings Situation Reports Patterns in the 2026 energy markets August 11, 2026 Ideas in Print tHE lOGIC OF IRAN’S BRINKSMANSHIP August 11, 2026 Contemplations Situation Reports Energy Market Trends for Remainder of 2026 and Cascading Macro/Geopolitical Impacts April 4, 2026 Contemplations Situation Reports Prospects for Ground Invasion in the War against Iran’s Islamic
- [about](https://masoudzamani.ca/about/) - About me my life journey & Work Experience FACULTY, University Of British Columbia, Vancouver, CanadaCourse: Problems in International Relations (POLI 464E), Law and Society: Foundations of Criminology (PLOI 421A 00), International Human Rights and Institutions (POLI V 369-I 001), International Conflict Management (POLI 368B). • Designed the syllabus and curricular schemes of courses. • Employed
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- [Intro](https://masoudzamani.ca/intro/) - Who is Masoud Zamani ? My name is Masoud Zamani. I think about law, power, and the human ambitions that shape political life — especially in the Middle East, and especially in Iran. These questions have shaped my life, my work, and my sense of responsibility toward the world.I am based at the University of

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